Nature Energy paper

We launch this model with a paper in the Nature Energy journal: A global model of hourly space heating and cooling demand at multiple spatial scales, which is free for all to read open-access.

The paper describes the model's methodology and data sources, and provides extensive validation of its ability to model real-world demand measured from thousands of buildings and 40+ countries and regions spanning across four continents.

The paper also demonstrates the Demand.ninja model in two case studies: looking at how much natural gas can be saved by reducing building thermostat temperatures across Europe and the US, and looking at how climate change has increased the global demand for space cooling over the last forty years.

Lowering your thermostat by 1°C takes 10% off your gas bill

We model the gas demand from 2,000 homes in the UK and find on average they would save 1,750 kWh of gas by lowering their internal temperature by 1°C. Given how high gas prices have been since last winter, this amounts to a £200 saving per household.

Across Europe, these savings amount to one-sixth of imports from Russia

Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Europe has been racing to reduce gas consumption to avoid shortages. If all buildings across Europe lowered their temperature by 1°C, Europe would save 240 TWh (or 840 billion cubic feet) of natural gas per year. This would cut the cost of imports by €22 billion per year, and cut CO2 emissions by nearly 50 million tonnes per year: a win-win-win for energy security, affordability and the climate.

Global warming is increasing cooling demand by up to 5% per year

We also look at how rising global temperatures is pushing up the demand for air conditioning. Cooling demand is rising fastest in northern Europe, by up to 5% year-on-year in places like the London and the UK south-east. Back in the 1980s it was rarely hot enough to need space cooling, but with hotter summers and intense heat waves, air conditioning is becoming a more common feature.

Rising temperatures means rising summer electricity demand

Even without growing uptake of air conditioners, the fact summers are warmer than they used to be means countries around the world have to consume more electricity to keep buildings comfortable. The US is consuming 66 TWh more per year for air conditioning than it did a generation ago because of hotter summers.

The models and data

To build upon the Demand.ninja paper, we are developing open-access tools to help you build simulations of current and future energy demand.

The core code of the Demand.ninja model is made freely-available on GitHub. Then, we are developing two interfaces to interact with the model: a 'building' mode where you can simulate energy demand for a building anywhere in the world, and a 'region' mode where you can explore the total energy demand across countries, states and provinces.

All of the data that featured in the paper is released as Supplementary Information and Source Data, which you can access on the Nature Energy website. In addition, we are releasing an extended dataset of daily temperatures and degree days for all regions of the world, plus energy demand estimates for those regions where we have been able to already calibrate the model.

Run simulations of hourly heating and cooling demand, anywhere in the world

We have added a new module to the popular Renewables.ninja website that allows you to calculate degree days and model energy consumption for buildings located anywhere in the world.

Build your own national and regional energy demand time series

We are developing an interactive front-end to the Demand.ninja that will allow you to easily customise the model parameters and explore time-series of projected demand.

For example, you will be able to assess the impact of aircon and heat pump uptake on electricity demand, or changing consumer preferences for thermal comfort.

Download pre-compiled model results

We have calculated average temperatures and degree days for every world region, which you can download from the links below. Each file gives raw temperatures, our Building Adjusted Internal Temperature (or BAIT) which is a measure of how warm it would feel inside a building, given solar gains, wind chill and humidity, heating and cooling degree days that are derived from BAIT. These all use our general global average model parameters, which are given in Figure ED1 in the paper. We provide 43 years of data at daily resolution, under a CC BY-NC 4.0 license.

We specifically modelled the electricity demand in 43 national and regional power markets in the Demand.ninja paper. We calibrated the model for each of these markets, so we are also in the process of compiling temperature, degree days, and electricity demand for each region, covering 43 years at daily resolution. The electricity demand simulations give an estimate of what each country or region would consume if the population, building and technology stock of today experienced the weather of the past. These simulations are built using our bespoke calibrated parameters.

North America


Temperatures and degree days. Daily data 1980-2022.

Individual country files contain all sub-regions plus national aggregates. Smaller countries are grouped together in a seperate file.

Country Temperature Building Adjusted Internal Temperature Heating Degree Days (HDDs) Cooling Degree Days (CDDs)
Canada CA_Temp.csv.gz CA_BAIT.csv.gz CA_HDD.csv.gz CA_CDD.csv.gz
Mexico MX_Temp.csv.gz MX_BAIT.csv.gz MX_HDD.csv.gz MX_CDD.csv.gz
United States US_Temp.csv.gz US_BAIT.csv.gz US_HDD.csv.gz US_CDD.csv.gz
32 other countries NAM_Temp.csv.gz NAM_BAIT.csv.gz NAM_HDD.csv.gz NAM_CDD.csv.gz

Europe


Temperatures and degree days. Daily data 1980-2022.

Individual country files contain all sub-regions plus national aggregates. Smaller countries are grouped together in a seperate file.

Country Temperature Building Adjusted Internal Temperature Heating Degree Days (HDDs) Cooling Degree Days (CDDs)
Austria AT_Temp.csv.gz AT_BAIT.csv.gz AT_HDD.csv.gz AT_CDD.csv.gz
Belgium BE_Temp.csv.gz BE_BAIT.csv.gz BE_HDD.csv.gz BE_CDD.csv.gz
Bulgaria BG_Temp.csv.gz BG_BAIT.csv.gz BG_HDD.csv.gz BG_CDD.csv.gz
Croatia HR_Temp.csv.gz HR_BAIT.csv.gz HR_HDD.csv.gz HR_CDD.csv.gz
Czechia CZ_Temp.csv.gz CZ_BAIT.csv.gz CZ_HDD.csv.gz CZ_CDD.csv.gz
Denmark DK_Temp.csv.gz DK_BAIT.csv.gz DK_HDD.csv.gz DK_CDD.csv.gz
Finland FI_Temp.csv.gz FI_BAIT.csv.gz FI_HDD.csv.gz FI_CDD.csv.gz
France FR_Temp.csv.gz FR_BAIT.csv.gz FR_HDD.csv.gz FR_CDD.csv.gz
Germany DE_Temp.csv.gz DE_BAIT.csv.gz DE_HDD.csv.gz DE_CDD.csv.gz
Greece GR_Temp.csv.gz GR_BAIT.csv.gz GR_HDD.csv.gz GR_CDD.csv.gz
Hungary HU_Temp.csv.gz HU_BAIT.csv.gz HU_HDD.csv.gz HU_CDD.csv.gz
Ireland IE_Temp.csv.gz IE_BAIT.csv.gz IE_HDD.csv.gz IE_CDD.csv.gz
Italy IT_Temp.csv.gz IT_BAIT.csv.gz IT_HDD.csv.gz IT_CDD.csv.gz
Netherlands NL_Temp.csv.gz NL_BAIT.csv.gz NL_HDD.csv.gz NL_CDD.csv.gz
Norway NO_Temp.csv.gz NO_BAIT.csv.gz NO_HDD.csv.gz NO_CDD.csv.gz
Poland PL_Temp.csv.gz PL_BAIT.csv.gz PL_HDD.csv.gz PL_CDD.csv.gz
Portugal PT_Temp.csv.gz PT_BAIT.csv.gz PT_HDD.csv.gz PT_CDD.csv.gz
Romania RO_Temp.csv.gz RO_BAIT.csv.gz RO_HDD.csv.gz RO_CDD.csv.gz
Russia RU_Temp.csv.gz RU_BAIT.csv.gz RU_HDD.csv.gz RU_CDD.csv.gz
Slovakia SK_Temp.csv.gz SK_BAIT.csv.gz SK_HDD.csv.gz SK_CDD.csv.gz
Slovenia SI_Temp.csv.gz SI_BAIT.csv.gz SI_HDD.csv.gz SI_CDD.csv.gz
Spain ES_Temp.csv.gz ES_BAIT.csv.gz ES_HDD.csv.gz ES_CDD.csv.gz
Sweden SE_Temp.csv.gz SE_BAIT.csv.gz SE_HDD.csv.gz SE_CDD.csv.gz
Switzerland CH_Temp.csv.gz CH_BAIT.csv.gz CH_HDD.csv.gz CH_CDD.csv.gz
Turkey TR_Temp.csv.gz TR_BAIT.csv.gz TR_HDD.csv.gz TR_CDD.csv.gz
Ukraine UA_Temp.csv.gz UA_BAIT.csv.gz UA_HDD.csv.gz UA_CDD.csv.gz
United Kingdom GB_Temp.csv.gz GB_BAIT.csv.gz GB_HDD.csv.gz GB_CDD.csv.gz
17 other countries EUR_Temp.csv.gz EUR_BAIT.csv.gz EUR_HDD.csv.gz EUR_CDD.csv.gz

Asia


Temperatures and degree days. Daily data 1980-2022.

Individual country files contain all sub-regions plus national aggregates. Smaller countries are grouped together in a seperate file.

Country Temperature Building Adjusted Internal Temperature Heating Degree Days (HDDs) Cooling Degree Days (CDDs)
Afghanistan AF_Temp.csv.gz AF_BAIT.csv.gz AF_HDD.csv.gz AF_CDD.csv.gz
Bangladesh BD_Temp.csv.gz BD_BAIT.csv.gz BD_HDD.csv.gz BD_CDD.csv.gz
China CN_Temp.csv.gz CN_BAIT.csv.gz CN_HDD.csv.gz CN_CDD.csv.gz
India IN_Temp.csv.gz IN_BAIT.csv.gz IN_HDD.csv.gz IN_CDD.csv.gz
Indonesia ID_Temp.csv.gz ID_BAIT.csv.gz ID_HDD.csv.gz ID_CDD.csv.gz
Iran IR_Temp.csv.gz IR_BAIT.csv.gz IR_HDD.csv.gz IR_CDD.csv.gz
Japan JP_Temp.csv.gz JP_BAIT.csv.gz JP_HDD.csv.gz JP_CDD.csv.gz
Kazakhstan KZ_Temp.csv.gz KZ_BAIT.csv.gz KZ_HDD.csv.gz KZ_CDD.csv.gz
Myanmar MM_Temp.csv.gz MM_BAIT.csv.gz MM_HDD.csv.gz MM_CDD.csv.gz
Pakistan PK_Temp.csv.gz PK_BAIT.csv.gz PK_HDD.csv.gz PK_CDD.csv.gz
Russia RU_Temp.csv.gz RU_BAIT.csv.gz RU_HDD.csv.gz RU_CDD.csv.gz
Saudi Arabia SA_Temp.csv.gz SA_BAIT.csv.gz SA_HDD.csv.gz SA_CDD.csv.gz
Turkey TR_Temp.csv.gz TR_BAIT.csv.gz TR_HDD.csv.gz TR_CDD.csv.gz
United Arab Emirates AE_Temp.csv.gz AE_BAIT.csv.gz AE_HDD.csv.gz AE_CDD.csv.gz
37 other countries ASI_Temp.csv.gz ASI_BAIT.csv.gz ASI_HDD.csv.gz ASI_CDD.csv.gz

South America


Temperatures and degree days. Daily data 1980-2022.

Individual country files contain all sub-regions plus national aggregates. Smaller countries are grouped together in a seperate file.

Country Temperature Building Adjusted Internal Temperature Heating Degree Days (HDDs) Cooling Degree Days (CDDs)
Argentina AR_Temp.csv.gz AR_BAIT.csv.gz AR_HDD.csv.gz AR_CDD.csv.gz
Bolivia BO_Temp.csv.gz BO_BAIT.csv.gz BO_HDD.csv.gz BO_CDD.csv.gz
Brazil BR_Temp.csv.gz BR_BAIT.csv.gz BR_HDD.csv.gz BR_CDD.csv.gz
Chile CL_Temp.csv.gz CL_BAIT.csv.gz CL_HDD.csv.gz CL_CDD.csv.gz
Colombia CO_Temp.csv.gz CO_BAIT.csv.gz CO_HDD.csv.gz CO_CDD.csv.gz
Peru PE_Temp.csv.gz PE_BAIT.csv.gz PE_HDD.csv.gz PE_CDD.csv.gz
Venezuela VE_Temp.csv.gz VE_BAIT.csv.gz VE_HDD.csv.gz VE_CDD.csv.gz
6 other countries SAM_Temp.csv.gz SAM_BAIT.csv.gz SAM_HDD.csv.gz SAM_CDD.csv.gz

Africa


Temperatures and degree days. Daily data 1980-2022.

Individual country files contain all sub-regions plus national aggregates. Smaller countries are grouped together in a seperate file.

Country Temperature Building Adjusted Internal Temperature Heating Degree Days (HDDs) Cooling Degree Days (CDDs)
Algeria DZ_Temp.csv.gz DZ_BAIT.csv.gz DZ_HDD.csv.gz DZ_CDD.csv.gz
Angola AO_Temp.csv.gz AO_BAIT.csv.gz AO_HDD.csv.gz AO_CDD.csv.gz
Chad TD_Temp.csv.gz TD_BAIT.csv.gz TD_HDD.csv.gz TD_CDD.csv.gz
D.R. Congo CD_Temp.csv.gz CD_BAIT.csv.gz CD_HDD.csv.gz CD_CDD.csv.gz
Egypt EG_Temp.csv.gz EG_BAIT.csv.gz EG_HDD.csv.gz EG_CDD.csv.gz
Ethiopia ET_Temp.csv.gz ET_BAIT.csv.gz ET_HDD.csv.gz ET_CDD.csv.gz
Kenya KE_Temp.csv.gz KE_BAIT.csv.gz KE_HDD.csv.gz KE_CDD.csv.gz
Libya LY_Temp.csv.gz LY_BAIT.csv.gz LY_HDD.csv.gz LY_CDD.csv.gz
Madagascar MG_Temp.csv.gz MG_BAIT.csv.gz MG_HDD.csv.gz MG_CDD.csv.gz
Mali ML_Temp.csv.gz ML_BAIT.csv.gz ML_HDD.csv.gz ML_CDD.csv.gz
Mozambique MZ_Temp.csv.gz MZ_BAIT.csv.gz MZ_HDD.csv.gz MZ_CDD.csv.gz
Namibia NA_Temp.csv.gz NA_BAIT.csv.gz NA_HDD.csv.gz NA_CDD.csv.gz
Niger NE_Temp.csv.gz NE_BAIT.csv.gz NE_HDD.csv.gz NE_CDD.csv.gz
Nigeria NG_Temp.csv.gz NG_BAIT.csv.gz NG_HDD.csv.gz NG_CDD.csv.gz
Somalia SO_Temp.csv.gz SO_BAIT.csv.gz SO_HDD.csv.gz SO_CDD.csv.gz
South Africa ZA_Temp.csv.gz ZA_BAIT.csv.gz ZA_HDD.csv.gz ZA_CDD.csv.gz
Tanzania TZ_Temp.csv.gz TZ_BAIT.csv.gz TZ_HDD.csv.gz TZ_CDD.csv.gz
Zambia ZM_Temp.csv.gz ZM_BAIT.csv.gz ZM_HDD.csv.gz ZM_CDD.csv.gz
36 other countries AFR_Temp.csv.gz AFR_BAIT.csv.gz AFR_HDD.csv.gz AFR_CDD.csv.gz

Oceania


Temperatures and degree days. Daily data 1980-2022.

Individual country files contain all sub-regions plus national aggregates. Smaller countries are grouped together in a seperate file.

Country Temperature Building Adjusted Internal Temperature Heating Degree Days (HDDs) Cooling Degree Days (CDDs)
Australia AU_Temp.csv.gz AU_BAIT.csv.gz AU_HDD.csv.gz AU_CDD.csv.gz
8 other countries OCE_Temp.csv.gz OCE_BAIT.csv.gz OCE_HDD.csv.gz OCE_CDD.csv.gz